MILWAUKEE — With many voters still undecided, State Rep. Francesca Hong has emerged as the clear front-runner in the volatile Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, opening up a double-digit lead in a slate of new polls following a chaotic shakeup in the field.
With the primary rapidly approaching on Aug. 11, Hong holds a commanding advantage over her closest rival, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. An Impact Research poll commissioned by the Barnes campaign shows Hong at 39%, 13 percentage points ahead of Barnes at 26%. A separate Public Policy Polling survey paid for by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s campaign places Hong at 35%, with Barnes trailing at 15% and Crowley at 14%.
The new numbers solidify Hong’s momentum following a dramatic week that fundamentally reshaped the race to succeed incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who is not seeking a third term.
The Democratic field experienced whiplash when Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez abruptly ended her campaign last Friday amid a campaign finance scandal. Her campaign manager was fired after the discovery of mismanaged funds, including potentially over-reported duplicate donations. Within hours of Rodriguez’s exit, Crowley—who had suspended his own campaign just over a week earlier to endorse Rodriguez—re-entered the race. Upon his return, Crowley quickly secured the endorsement of Gov. Evers, hoping the governor’s popularity and political infrastructure will help him make up ground.
Despite these high-profile twists, the independent Marquette Law School Poll confirms Hong’s sustained advantage. Conducted between July 8 and July 16—after Crowley’s initial exit but before Rodriguez withdrew—the survey found Hong leading with 26%, followed by Barnes at 15% and Rodriguez at 11%.
“The field has changed dramatically, but the frontrunner has not,” Hong said in a statement responding to the polls. She attributed her lead to a robust grassroots coalition and a platform focused on universal childcare, cheaper health care, and fully funded public schools. Identifying as a democratic socialist, Hong has built a highly motivated volunteer base that has propelled her campaign forward despite the crowded field.
Looking ahead to the general election, polling suggests a dead heat in the battleground state. The Marquette poll found Hong tied at 44% with the presumed Republican nominee, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, among registered voters. Hong’s campaign pointed to these numbers to push back against Republican attack ads labeling her as “too liberal,” arguing the data proves she is highly competitive statewide.
However, the race is far from decided. The Marquette poll revealed that 45% of Democratic primary voters remained undecided in mid-July.
“We are proud of our momentum, but as they say: Polls do not decide elections – people do,” Hong stated, promising to spend the final 20 days of the primary campaign fighting for every remaining vote.
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