Battles for control over state legislatures head into homestretch

Aug 22, 2024

Groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans are planning to pour a couple hundred million dollars into state legislative battles that will culminate with the November general election.

Nearly 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states are up for election this year, with top targets that include a half-dozen states where control of a chamber is in play — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Many of those states also are presidential battlegrounds. In some cases, national political groups are trying to link legislative candidates to the fortunes of the presidential candidates. In others, they are trying to distinguish them from the top of the ticket.

Targeted states

During each two-year election cycle, national Democratic and Republican groups pour money into states where they think that victories in particular legislative races could help them win control of a chamber or increase their share of seats in a meaningful way. Other groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans also target particular states with spending on legislative races.

The targeted states often overlap but can vary from group to group.

A list of the states targeted by the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee can be found here, and those targeted by the national Republican State Leadership Committee are described here.

After Republican successes over the previous decade, several Democratic-aligned groups also have emerged to provide funding for their own state legislative targets. One of the most prolific spenders is The States Project, which describes its targeted states here. Another is Forward Majority which lists its targets here.

Partisan control of legislative chambers could be in play in several states this year, either because of close margins between Democrats and Republican or other circumstances, such as court-ordered redistricting. In other states, parties are looking to keep or break up supermajorities, which allow lawmakers of one party to override vetoes by a governor of the opposing party.

Here’s a look at some of the most heavily contested state legislatures and their partisan composition after the most recent election, not including vacancies that occurred since then:

ALASKA

House: 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats, 5 independents

Senate: 11 Republicans, 9 Democrats

Overview: Alaska politicians have a history of bucking their party labels to form cross-party governing coalitions in the legislative chambers. That puts control of the chambers in play, and raises the stakes for post-election coalition building.

ARIZONA

House: 31 Republicans, 29 Democrats

Senate: 16 Republicans, 14 Democrats

Overview: Control of both chambers is in play in this closely divided, presidential battleground state. That was also the case in the 2022 elections, but neither party made gains.

KANSAS

House: 85 Republicans, Democrats 40

Senate: 29 Republicans, 11 Democrats

Overview: Democrats are looking to break the Republicans’ two-thirds supermajority, which allows GOP lawmakers to override vetoes of Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. A swing of just a couple seats in the House could make the difference. All seats in both chambers are up for election.

MICHIGAN

House: 56 Democrats, 54 Republicans

Senate: 20 Democrats, 18 Republicans

Overview: Republicans are looking to regain the House after Democrat flipped control in the 2022 elections, which were the first using districts drawn by a citizens’ redistricting commission. Fifteen House districts were redrawn again before this year’s elections after a court struck down district boundaries in the Detroit area. There are no state Senate elections this year.

MINNESOTA

House: 70 Democrats, 64 Republicans

Senate: 34 Democrats, 33 Republicans

Overview: After failing to gain ground in 2022, Republicans are trying again to break a Democratic trifecta over the governor’s office and both legislative chambers. There are no regular Senate elections, but one special election to fill a vacancy will determine whether Democrats retain their one-vote Senate majority.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

House: 201 Republicans, 198 Democrats, 1 vacancy

Senate: 14 Republicans, 10 Democrats

Overview: The state House is the largest legislative chamber in the U.S., despite representing one of the smallest states, and is notorious for large seat swings in elections that can affect control of the chamber. Democrats came close to flipping the House two years ago. The 2022 elections resulted in 201 Republicans, 198 Democrats and one tied race that was later won by a Democrat in a special election. Changes since then have left the chamber with 199 Republicans, 193 Democrats, two independents and six vacancies.

NORTH CAROLINA

House: 72 Republicans, 48 Democrats

Senate: 30 Republicans, 20 Democrats

Overview: Democrats would need to gain just one seat in either of the two chambers to break the three-fifths Republican supermajority that allows the GOP to override vetoes of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. The governor’s office also is up for election, and Cooper is barred by term limits from running.

PENNYSLVANIA

House: 102 Democrats, 101 Republicans

Senate: 28 Republicans, 22 Democrats

Overview: Republicans are looking to regain the House after Democrats narrowly flipped it in the 2022 elections. Only half the seats are up for election in the Senate, where Republicans hold a slightly larger majority.

WISCONSIN

Assembly: 64 Republicans, 35 Democrats

Senate: 22 Republicans, 11 Democrats

Overview: Democrats are targeting both chambers, with better prospects in the Assembly, after a new liberal majority of the state Supreme Court struck down districts that had helped entrench Republican majorities. The new districts, backed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, give Democrats a greater chance than before.